Climate & Environment
Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS)
The IEA's baseline scenario projecting where current, actually-adopted government policies take the energy system.
Definition
The Stated Policies Scenario is the baseline scenario of the IEA's World Energy Outlook, projecting the evolution of the energy system under policies and measures that governments have actually adopted — not merely announced. It deliberately distinguishes enacted policy from aspirational pledges (modelled separately in the Announced Pledges Scenario), providing a conservative trajectory against which the gap to climate goals can be measured. In recent editions, STEPS projections have shown fossil fuel demand peaking this decade while still falling far short of net zero.
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