Climate policy
Peak Emissions
The point in time at which a country's, sector's or the world's greenhouse gas emissions reach their maximum before entering sustained decline.
Definition
Peak emissions is the year or period in which greenhouse gas emissions reach their highest level before beginning a structural, sustained decline. Peaking is a necessary first milestone on any pathway to net zero; the timing and level of the peak strongly determine cumulative emissions and thus eventual warming.
References
global peaking status and projections
energy emissions plateau evidence
Overview
What it means
Many developed economies peaked emissions years ago; China's pledge to peak CO₂ before 2030 is the world's most consequential pending peak. Globally, analyses suggest energy-sector CO₂ emissions are at or near a plateau, but a plateau is not a peak until decline is locked in — and every year of delay at high levels consumes carbon budget.
How it is used
Peaking commitments feature in NDCs and long-term strategies; analysts assess whether economies have reached "peak fossil" demand and whether declines reflect structural change or temporary shocks.
Why it matters
Climate stabilisation is impossible while emissions still rise; confirming and accelerating the global peak is the first test of whether the Paris Agreement is working.
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